Is the Magic Number for Retirement $1.2 Million or $1.46 Million?
The magic number for retirement doesn’t have one answer this year. Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study puts it at $1.46 million for the average American adult. Schroders’ 2026 US Retirement Survey, limited to people contributing to a workplace plan, lands on $1.2 million. Both come from real survey data collected in 2026. Neither one describes your retirement.
Maybe you’ve already measured your own savings against one of these figures and felt behind, or ahead. That’s a natural reaction to see next to a big round number. The number you picked might just be the wrong one for your situation, and what follows below lays out why.
The Magic Number for Retirement Has Three Different Answers in 2026
Two major surveys published new figures this year, and they land in different places. Northwestern Mutual asked all US adults and got $1.46 million. Schroders asked people in a 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan and got $1.2 million. Northwestern Mutual also broke out high-net-worth Americans, those with $1 million or more in investable assets, who put their number at $2.67 million.
| Source | Who was surveyed | Magic number |
| Schroders 2026 US Retirement Survey | Workplace retirement plan participants | $1.2 million |
| Northwestern Mutual 2026 Planning & Progress Study | All US adults | $1.46 million |
| Northwestern Mutual 2026 Planning & Progress Study | High-net-worth Americans ($1M+ investable assets) | $2.67 million |
Three numbers, one year, three cross-sections of the same country. None of the three is wrong. Each one measures a distinct group of people, answering a version of the question the others weren’t asking.
Why Do Two Retirement Surveys Disagree by $260,000?
Who got asked matters more than what they were asked. Schroders surveyed people already contributing to a workplace plan, a group that by definition has some retirement savings and some structure around it. Northwestern Mutual surveyed the full adult population, including people who haven’t started saving and retirees already living on what they’ve put aside.
Ask a group that’s already saving what they think they need, and the number comes in lower. Open the question to everyone, and the range of circumstances pulls the average up. That difference in who answered explains most of the $260,000 gap between the two figures.
Sample timing plays a smaller role too. Schroders fielded its survey between March and April of 2026. Northwestern Mutual’s retirement figures came from a wave fielded in January. Two months isn’t long enough on its own to shift a savings target this much. It rules out the idea that one survey caught a more anxious moment than the other.
A Higher Savings Target Hasn’t Closed What Americans Have Saved
Knowing the number hasn’t gotten anyone closer to it. Just 30% of Schroders’ respondents believe they’ll reach $1 million in savings. The rest of the picture:
- 51% expect to retire with less than $500,000 saved
- 24% expect less than $250,000
- 33% carry more credit card debt than retirement savings
Competing costs explain part of it. 55% say they can’t save 10% of their paycheck because other expenses come first, and 69% believe rising healthcare, housing, insurance, and utility costs have put retirement out of reach for their generation.
Even where savings exist, a chunk of it sits idle. About a quarter of retirement assets are held in cash. Fear of a market downturn keeps much of it there. For anyone more than five years from retirement, that much cash carries a real cost: money on the sidelines isn’t compounding, and a solid savings rate can only do so much work if a portion of the portfolio stays parked for the next decade.
How Does the Magic Number for Retirement Differ by Generation?
The national figure hides real differences by generation. Northwestern Mutual’s 2024 study, the most recent year it broke this out by generation, found each cohort naming a different target and holding a different amount saved toward it.
| Generation | Magic number (2024) | Average saved (2024) |
| Gen Z | $1.63 million | $22,800 |
| Millennials | $1.65 million | $62,600 |
| Gen X | $1.56 million | $108,600 |
| Boomers+ | $990,000 | $120,300 |
Younger generations name the highest targets and have the least saved toward them. Gen Z’s number sits at $1.63 million against just $22,800 saved. Boomers+ land on the opposite end: the lowest target of any generation, $990,000, backed by the most saved, $120,300, with the fewest years left to close the distance.
These are generational averages, not individual answers. A single Gen Z saver or Boomer retiree could sit well outside either column.
Your Magic Number for Retirement Isn’t a Survey Average
A national average can’t see your Social Security timing or your mortgage payoff date. It doesn’t know what you plan to spend on travel in your first five years of retirement. It’s built from millions of different households and collapses them into one figure. Bruce Lorenz, a Boldin Advisor and CFP® professional, made this point in a conversation about average 401(k) balances: before anyone can answer “what’s my magic number,” they need to answer what they plan to spend.
Northwestern Mutual points to a couple of shortcuts for estimating that number:
- The 25x rule: multiply expected annual spending by 25
- The 4% rule: withdraw 4% of the portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year after
Both compress a lot of variables into one multiplier. That makes them a starting point for back-of-napkin estimates, not a plan.
The same average-versus-median split shows up across Boldin’s own benchmark data. The average 401(k) balance by age was $167,970 in 2025, but the median sat at just $44,115, since a small number of large accounts pull the mean far above what most savers carry. The average IRA balance by age splits even wider by account type: $225,413 for traditional IRAs against $57,450 for Roth, a gap driven mostly by large 401(k) rollovers landing in traditional accounts. Average retirement savings by generation tell the same story for total savings: workers 55 to 64 carry a $185,000 median against a $537,560 average.
None of those benchmarks replace a plan built from your own numbers. Workers with a retirement plan are more than twice as likely to feel confident about retiring, 83% versus 38% without one. The Boldin Planner models your spending, Social Security timing, and savings together, so the number that comes out fits your retirement instead of a national average.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Retirement Magic Number
The retirement magic number for 2026 comes down to two well-known figures. Northwestern Mutual’s Planning & Progress Study puts the average American’s retirement number at $1.46 million. Schroders’ US Retirement Survey, limited to workplace plan participants, puts it at $1.2 million. Neither figure accounts for an individual’s spending plans or income sources.
The two surveys asked different populations. Schroders surveyed people contributing to a 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan, a group with existing retirement savings and some structure around it. Northwestern Mutual surveyed the full US adult population, including people who haven’t started saving. That difference in who was asked explains most of the $260,000 spread between the two figures.
Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 survey found that high-net-worth Americans, defined as people with $1 million or more in investable assets, put their own retirement number at $2.67 million on average. That’s almost double the $1.46 million figure reported by the general adult population in the same survey.
Northwestern Mutual’s 2024 study, the most recent year it broke the retirement number out by generation, found millennials naming the highest target at $1.65 million, followed by Gen Z at $1.63 million and Gen X at $1.56 million. Boomers+ named the lowest target, $990,000, and had saved the most toward it, $120,300 on average.
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